Overview

• Goldman Sachs estimates U.S. consumers are shouldering up to 55% of tariff costs so far and says the burden could rise if new levies expand.
• Retail trackers show imported goods prices up about 4% since March while domestic items rose roughly 2%, with Yale researchers noting many foreign exporters raised dollar prices rather than absorbing duties.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributes roughly 30–40 basis points of recent core inflation to tariffs, while Goldman estimates they have added about 0.44 percentage point to the Fed’s preferred gauge.
• Retail experts warn President Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, set to take effect Nov. 1, could prompt shipment pull-forwards and higher prices next year even as much holiday inventory is already stateside.
• Global indicators point to trade strain, with the WTO cutting its growth outlook, EU exports to the U.S. falling, and surveys showing declining new export orders as firms continue to adjust pricing and supply chains.