Overview

• After the April tariff moves, retailers first sped up imports then pulled back, with Wells Fargo data showing a shift to more cautious fall buying to avoid overstock.
• Chains are narrowing assortments through inventory rationalization, trimming fringe SKUs to manage higher costs.
• Retailers are expected to start promotions in September and October, but discounts will be slimmer and big-ticket rebates less common.
• Tariff‑sensitive categories such as apparel, furniture, and holiday décor are likely to see higher prices or smaller selections this fall.
• Walmart says tariffs are squeezing profits, and it has absorbed most cost increases while passing roughly 4%–5% to shoppers.