Overview
- CEESP says Mexico ranks among the most affected economies this year, citing weaker investment tied to heightened trade protectionism and internal uncertainty.
- Banxico’s November survey cut the 2025 GDP forecast to 0.39% and trimmed 2026 to 1.29%, with specialists expecting just 0.1% seasonally adjusted growth in the fourth quarter.
- Market consensus from Citi’s biweekly poll puts 2025 growth at 0.4%, with estimates spanning 0.1% to 0.6%, and projects a modest 1.3% in 2026.
- Official data show deep investment contractions in 2025, including an annualized 8.4% drop in total investment, construction down 10.2%, machinery and equipment off 6.1%, and a 29.1% slide in infrastructure outlays through October.
- OECD projections stand at 0.7% growth for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, while CEESP expects inflation to stay above 3% and analysts flag fiscal strain from Pemex support, a roughly 53.1% debt ratio, and a potential 3.6% deficit without tax reform.