Overview

• Treasury data show customs duties reached $165 billion in fiscal 2025, a $95 billion increase from a year earlier.
• The Federal Circuit on Aug. 29 questioned use of IEEPA for sweeping tariffs, with stays keeping duties in force as the administration seeks expedited Supreme Court review.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a loss would require refunding about half of the collected duties to importers.
• The Yale Budget Lab estimates invalidation could erase roughly $1.5 trillion in revenue over a decade, while S&P recently cited tariff receipts as a support for the AA+ rating.
• The White House is preparing fallback tariffs under Sections 232 and 301, a more cumbersome approach that analysts warn could raise business costs already reported by importers.