Overview

• U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annualized rate in Q2, reversing a 0.5% contraction in Q1 and surpassing economists’ forecasts.
• A steep decline in imports, as companies drew down inventories stockpiled ahead of tariffs, accounted for a large share of the headline GDP gain.
• Private employers added 104,000 jobs in July and annual wages rose 4.4%, according to the ADP National Employment Report.
• The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged, recording its first two-member dissent since 1993 from Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller.
• Analysts warn that tariff-driven trade swings, supply-chain disruptions and uneven consumer demand could mask weaker underlying momentum.