Overview

• The Federal Circuit found most IEEPA‑based tariffs unlawful but stayed its ruling, and the Supreme Court will hear the expedited appeal in early November with the duties remaining in force until a decision.
• CBO Director Phillip Swagel says the tariffs have likely pushed up inflation and calls the pending Supreme Court ruling a key economic uncertainty, even as revenue totaled $80.3 billion from January to July and long‑run deficit reduction is projected at about $4 trillion.
• Analysts and officials outline large refund risks if the tariffs fall, with estimates ranging from roughly $100 billion to as much as $750 billion–$1 trillion if a ruling is delayed, while importers are urged to file protests and track liquidation deadlines to preserve claims.
• House Republican leaders passed a 213–211 procedural rule to block a vote to end the emergency underpinning the tariffs through March 31, 2026, after a brief GOP revolt, and some leaders later signaled a potential shortening to January 31 in a subsequent rule.
• President Trump defends the policy and predicts a fair Supreme Court outcome, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns the appeals decision is weakening U.S. negotiating leverage, and he says a Trump–Xi call is slated as talks with China continue while partners like Brazil lodge objections.