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Targeted Transgender Messaging Narrows Sherrill’s Lead in New Jersey Governor’s Race

Recent polling reveals that strong voter rejection of transgender-athlete participation coupled with disapproval of taxpayer-funded transitions has almost erased Mikie Sherrill’s advantage.

In this photo combo Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., left, speaking during a news conference, Feb. 13, 2024, in Washington and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli speaking, Feb. 4, 2025, at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J.
Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (left), and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (right).
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Overview

  • An APP/Cygnal survey of 500 likely voters conducted June 19–20 (±4.36%) shows Sherrill’s initial 50%–43% lead shrinking to a 46%–45% tie after exposure to her transgender rights record.
  • The poll found 68% of respondents oppose allowing transgender-identifying boys to compete against girls in school sports and over 70% reject taxpayer funding for minors’ transition procedures.
  • Sixty percent of voters disapprove of public elementary schools teaching sexual orientation and transgender ideology, underscoring widespread unease with related curricula.
  • Despite 53% of New Jersey voters naming inflation, cost of living and taxes as their top concerns, social issues are emerging as powerful influences on voter decisions.
  • The data suggest Republican Jack Ciattarelli could leverage culture-war messaging on transgender policies to turn a traditionally Democratic contest into a competitive fall race.