Overview

• Allies say the São Paulo governor has hesitated in recent days over a 2026 presidential run and is considering waiting until 2030.
• A public, explicit endorsement from Jair Bolsonaro is described by interlocutors as the scenario most likely to push him into the 2026 race.
• Tarcísio is scheduled to visit Bolsonaro in Brasília on September 29, a meeting viewed as a potential signal for his decision.
• His indecision is reshaping Minas Gerais alignments, affecting plans for Rodrigo Pacheco, Cleitinho Azevedo and Vice Governor Mateus Simões.
• PSD sources say Simões is close to joining the party with an expected October 27 filiation, as Kassab presses for Tarcísio to seek reelection in São Paulo and reports say he rejected Kassab as a potential running mate.