Overview

• The São Paulo governor is scheduled to visit Jair Bolsonaro in Brasília on September 29, a meeting viewed by allies as a key moment for signals about 2026.
• Advisers cite strong reelection prospects, the chance to solidify an eight-year record, and greater political independence as reasons to defer a presidential run.
• Reporting indicates that only a public, unequivocal blessing from Bolsonaro would likely push him to enter the presidential race next year.
• His indecision is reshaping Minas Gerais: PSD weighs backing Rodrigo Pacheco or bringing in Vice Governor Mateus Simões, who is reported close to joining the party with a possible October 27 filiation.
• If Tarcísio runs nationally, PL and Republicanos could drop Cleitinho Azevedo to unify right and center forces in Minas, while PSD’s Gilberto Kassab lobbies for Tarcísio to seek reelection in São Paulo.