Overview

• Paraná Pesquisas shows Governor Tarcísio de Freitas ahead by more than 20 points in stimulated first‑round matchups, with runoff simulations giving him wide margins over rivals including Márcio França and Geraldo Alckmin.
• Poder360’s read of the data indicates Tarcísio would pass 50% of valid votes and win outright in most tested first‑round scenarios.
• Approval of Tarcísio’s administration reaches 65.8%, with 30.6% disapproval, reinforcing his position as the gubernatorial frontrunner.
• For the two Senate seats, Fernando Haddad and Eduardo Bolsonaro top the stimulated ballot, while the exclusion of both shifts the lead to Geraldo Alckmin and Guilherme Derrite.
• Without Tarcísio in the governor lineup, Ricardo Nunes leads, and additional name-removal tests elevate Márcio França, in findings based on 1,680 interviews across 86 municipalities with a 2.4‑point margin of error at 95% confidence.