Overview
- Multiple polls in early October show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, with YouGov finding Talarico 50% to 44% and other surveys reporting similar edges.
- President Trump held a rally in San Antonio on Oct. 7 to boost Paxton and other Texas Republicans as campaigns race toward early voting beginning Oct. 19.
- The campaign has tightened around clear policy contrasts on health care, with Talarico backing Medicare buy‑in, Medicaid expansion, insulin caps and Canadian drug importation and Paxton promoting tax incentives and smaller government roles while citing his record of pharma enforcement as attorney general.
- A new USHBC poll of Texas Hispanic business owners shows Talarico ahead by five points within that key subgroup and finds affordability, energy and health care are top issues driving their votes.
- Republicans have resurfaced a 2020 clip of Talarico discussing willingness to raise revenue as an attack line while Paxton’s past ethics and legal controversies and heavy outside GOP spending continue to shape the closing‑stretch dynamics.