Overview
- Emerson College Polling/Nexstar finds James Talarico at 47 percent to Jasmine Crockett’s 38 percent in the Democratic primary, with 15 percent undecided.
- The Republican primary shows Ken Paxton at 27 percent, John Cornyn at 26 percent, and Wesley Hunt at 16 percent, with 29 percent undecided and a May runoff described as likely by the pollster.
- General-election tests show Talarico trailing Cornyn 44–47 and Hunt 44–47 but tied with Paxton 46–46, while Crockett posts similar margins against each Republican, with roughly 9 percent undecided across matchups.
- Within Democratic primary subgroups, Talarico leads among Hispanic voters (59 percent) and white voters (57 percent), while Crockett holds 80 percent support among Black voters; men favor Talarico 52–30 as women split nearly evenly.
- The survey was conducted January 10–12 among 1,165 Texas registered voters (credibility interval ±2.8 points), with Democratic primary n=413 (±4.8) and Republican primary n=550 (±4.1).