Overview
- An AARP poll released Sept. 10 shows Democrat James Talarico with 48% and Republican Ken Paxton with 44% among likely Texas voters while Paxton leads 53% to 40% with voters 50 and older, a group that reports much higher turnout motivation.
- Talarico has a large recent cash advantage, reporting roughly $30 million raised in the last quarter versus Paxton’s $9 million, which has funded sustained Democratic TV and digital ads across the state.
- Republican-aligned outside groups have poured tens of millions into the race in mid‑September, including about $60 million from a Texas PAC linked to the Senate Leadership Fund and additional spending from Trump‑aligned PACs.
- Paxton’s campaign and its joint committee have begun their first major general‑election broadcast buys with two economy-focused ads running in Harlingen, Laredo and Corpus Christi that attack Talarico on taxes and tout Paxton’s cost‑cutting plans.
- Paxton’s history of impeachment and other controversies initially kept some elite Republicans on the sidelines, which delayed direct party backing and prompted the surge of outside rescue spending that now shapes turnout and messaging; a Democratic statewide win would be rare in modern Texas and could shift Senate arithmetic.