Overview
- Unofficial and state‑reported returns show Democrat James Talarico bested Republican Ken Paxton, with Talarico receiving about 5.44 million votes to Paxton’s roughly 4.25 million.
- Talarico’s lead was driven by early voting, with roughly 4.40 million early ballots for the Democrat compared with about 3.23 million early ballots for Paxton.
- Prediction markets such as Polymarket shifted toward Talarico on Election Day and correctly signaled several Democratic wins in tight Texas contests.
- Paxton’s long‑running controversies, including his 2023 impeachment and acquittal, and repeated campaigning by President Trump were not enough to overcome the turnout gap.
- The result is part of broader Democratic gains in Texas, including the governorship, and could reshape national political calculations and turnout strategies to watch in coming cycles.