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Take-Two Outlook Hinges on GTA 6 After Delay to Late 2026 Despite Strong Results

Analysts expect a sharp earnings step-up following the next Grand Theft Auto release despite the pushed timeline.

Overview

  • Grand Theft Auto 6 is now expected in the fourth quarter of 2026, a delay that contributed to an 8.1% drop in Take-Two shares following its Nov. 6 earnings release.
  • Recent quarterly results were robust, with revenue up 31.1% year over year to $1.8 billion, non-GAAP EBITDA at $116.7 million, and first-half operating cash flow swinging to $83.7 million from a prior-year deficit.
  • Shares have gained roughly 34% year to date and about 30% over the past 12 months, though the stock has lagged the Dow in the last three months and is off 6.6% from its 52-week high.
  • The company’s portfolio spans Rockstar, 2K, and Zynga across console, PC, and mobile, with recurrent consumer spending driving over 70% of bookings and rising 20% in the latest quarter as total bookings grew 33%.
  • Wall Street models project EPS lifting from about $3.28 this year to roughly $7.97 in the following year, reflecting expectations tied to the GTA 6 launch and the company’s broad franchise base.