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Takaichi’s Poll Surge Faces Tests From China Rift and Inflation Risks

Rapid stimulus moves plus tough talk on Taiwan have energized supporters, provoking Chinese retaliation.

Overview

  • An early Yomiuri survey this week put cabinet approval at 72 percent, while a recent Mainichi poll showed 65 percent overall with especially strong support among younger voters.
  • Beijing reacted to Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks with a travel warning for Japan and reportedly reimposed a seafood import ban, with analysts warning China holds significant economic leverage over Tokyo.
  • Takaichi unveiled a roughly $135 billion stimulus including cash handouts to parents and energy subsidies, drawing concerns about debt, a weaker yen and renewed inflation pressure.
  • The prime minister said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a survival-threatening situation for Japan, signaling potential use of collective self-defense and pairing that stance with visible outreach to the United States.
  • At home she advanced a ~¥17 trillion extra budget, tax-cut plans, proposals to trim Diet seats and end ministers’ supplemental pay, while consolidating power through a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party and appointments of former rivals to key posts.