Overview
- Yomiuri reports that Feb. 8 and Feb. 15 are being considered for a lower-house election, with dissolution potentially at the Jan. 23 opening of the ordinary Diet session.
- Hirofumi Yoshimura of Ishin said Takaichi’s thinking had entered a new stage and he would not be surprised by a February call, as the Internal Affairs Ministry urged local committees to prepare.
- Takaichi’s cabinet approval remains above 70% in recent polls, while the LDP–Ishin bloc holds the slimmest possible majority in the lower house and is a minority in the upper chamber.
- Market reaction has been swift, with Nikkei futures jumping and the yen weakening beyond ¥158 per dollar, alongside concerns over rising long-term bond yields.
- The election calculus unfolds as Tokyo navigates a sharp downturn in ties with Beijing following Takaichi’s Taiwan-related remarks, which prompted Chinese travel warnings, event cancellations and export curbs.