Overview
- Surveys this week project the LDP and its coalition partner Ishin near 300 of 465 lower‑house seats, with scenarios ranging from an absolute stable majority at 261 to a potential two‑thirds super‑majority at 310.
- Younger voters drive Takaichi’s surge, with polls showing 70–90% approval under 30 and a social‑media fandom boosting her personal ratings far above the party’s.
- Her economic plans, including a large stimulus and a two‑year suspension of the 8% food sales tax, have pushed up bond yields and unsettled the yen.
- Tensions with China have intensified since her Taiwan remarks, and a strong mandate could shape her push to bolster defenses despite Beijing’s objections.
- Analysts warn enthusiasm may not fully translate into votes given historically low youth turnout, heavy snow forecasts, and her pledge to resign if she loses the lower‑house majority.