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Takaichi Leads LDP Supporters Ahead of Oct. 4 Vote as Runoff Likely

Divided lawmaker support leaves policy fights over foreign land purchases plus a potential U.S. deal review at the forefront.

Overview

  • A Kyodo News poll of party supporters puts Sanae Takaichi first at 34.4 percent, followed by Shinjiro Koizumi at 29.3 percent and Yoshimasa Hayashi at 19.5 percent, with Toshimitsu Motegi at 5.2 percent and Takayuki Kobayashi at 3.8 percent.
  • Surveys of LDP lawmakers show more than 80 backing Koizumi, about 60 for Hayashi, around 40 for Takaichi, roughly 30 each for Kobayashi and Motegi, and about 20 percent still undecided, pointing to no first-round majority.
  • The leadership contest on Oct. 4 will allocate 295 votes to Diet members and 295 based on rank-and-file ballots, with a same-day runoff between the top two if needed; in the runoff, lawmakers keep 295 votes and prefectural chapters cast one vote each.
  • Nearly 70 percent of LDP local chapter executives favor tougher curbs on land purchases by foreign buyers, with Takaichi and Kobayashi pledging stricter rules and Motegi proposing centralized oversight.
  • Takaichi said on Fuji TV that Japan could seek a renegotiation of a U.S. trade-related arrangement tied to a US$550 billion investment fund if it proves unfavorable to Japan.