Overview
- China’s ruling party is discussing the 15th five-year plan at a plenum ending Thursday, with full details due at March’s parliamentary session, and Taiwan is scrutinizing any mention of Kinmen.
- Two officials told Reuters that inclusion of Kinmen could allow Beijing to claim de facto jurisdiction or exercise “de facto administrative power,” raising the risk of a shift from sovereignty disputes to jurisdiction contests.
- Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council declined comment until Beijing releases policy details, and China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to a request for comment.
- Taipei points to growing pressure near Kinmen and Matsu, citing regular China Coast Guard patrols, occasional drone flights, and new air routes opened last year without consultation that Taiwan says compress response times.
- Taiwan also flags infrastructure risks including an unapproved Xiamen–Kinmen bridge with no work on the Kinmen side, a new Xiamen airport due next year only a few kilometres away, and Kinmen’s existing water supply from China.