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Taiwan Lifts 2025 Growth Forecast to 7.37%, Fastest in 15 Years on AI Export Boom

Officials warn U.S. tariff exposure could curb momentum in 2026.

Shipping containers are seen at the Port of Keelung in Keelung, Taiwan, on August 7, 2025.
Night view of Taipei 101 and the Taipei skyline in the distance behind vegetation and a mountain trail from Taipei Mountains in Taipei, Taiwan, on December 14, 2021.
Visitors walk around a local night market in Keelung on June 26, 2025.
Visitors watch a wafer shown on screens at the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) Renovation Museum at the Hsinchu Science Park in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on July 5, 2023.

Overview

  • The statistics office raised its 2026 outlook to 3.54% growth, projecting export growth of 6.32% and inflation at 1.61%, which analysts say supports holding rates in December.
  • Third-quarter GDP was revised up to 8.21% year on year on the back of a strong export surge.
  • Taiwan’s outbound shipments to the United States rose more than 63% in the first 10 months, reflecting robust AI data center demand.
  • Taipei is negotiating to reduce a 20% U.S. tariff on its exports, with semiconductors currently excluded, and officials flagged this as a key uncertainty for next year.
  • Economists say gains are highly concentrated, with electronics contributing over 15% of GDP but only 6.5% of jobs, and many workers reporting stagnant wages.