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Taiwan Election Could Influence Cross-Strait Relations and U.S. Strategy

As Taiwan's presidential election approaches, Beijing considers responses to potential DPP victory while analysts suggest a KMT win could provide strategic reprieve for the U.S.

Overview

  • Taiwan's presidential election on January 13 is expected to be a contest between the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Beijing-leaning Kuomintang (KMT).
  • Beijing is reportedly considering various responses to a potential DPP victory, including military displays, economic sanctions, and 'grey zone' tactics such as cutting internet cables or increasing drone overflights.
  • The DPP's candidate, Lai Ching-te, is currently leading in the polls, but the election outcome is not guaranteed.
  • Analysts suggest that a KMT victory could temporarily reduce cross-strait tensions and provide a strategic reprieve for the United States, which is currently stretched thin with conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
  • Regardless of the election outcome, maintaining Taiwan's sovereignty remains a top U.S. foreign policy priority.