Overview

• MRP models show Conservatives could win between 50 and 200 seats, with Labour projected to secure 375 to 500 seats.
• Tactical voting is at a record high, with nearly 20% of voters choosing parties based on their chances to defeat Conservatives.
• Labour and Liberal Democrats are strategically avoiding competition in each other's target constituencies to maximize impact.
• Combined support for Labour and Conservatives is at its lowest in a century, with smaller parties like Reform UK and Greens surging.
• Labour strategists warn that votes for smaller parties could still allow Conservatives to win in marginal seats.