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Sydney and Melbourne Prices Slip as Australia’s Housing Rally Hits a Year-End Slowdown

Higher-for-longer rate expectations are cooling momentum at the start of 2026.

Overview

  • Cotality reports national dwelling values rose 8.6% in 2025, adding about $71,400 to the median, while December saw the smallest monthly gain in five months at 0.7%.
  • Sydney and Melbourne posted their first monthly declines since January last year, even as other capitals advanced, with the strongest annual gains in Darwin, Perth and Brisbane.
  • Market confidence has softened as expectations shift toward no near-term cuts and a possible RBA increase at the early February meeting, according to banks and analysts.
  • Most forecasters still project mid‑single‑digit price growth in 2026, supported by low listings and limited new construction that continue to constrain supply.
  • Rental pressures persisted with national rents up about 5.2% in 2025, and tougher limits on high debt-to-income home loans are set to tighten credit next month.