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Swiss National Bank Holds Rate at 0%, Flags Trade Hit to 2026 Growth

The central bank cites higher U.S. tariffs as the main threat to Swiss exports, with investment also at risk.

La Banque nationale suisse (BNS), photo prise  le 21 mars 2024

Overview

  • The policy rate stays at 0% as the SNB keeps its medium‑term inflation projections unchanged at 0.2% for 2025, 0.5% for 2026 and 0.7% for 2027.
  • Inflation has ticked up recently, rising from −0.1% in May to 0.2% in August, yet the bank still sees price pressures within its stability range.
  • The SNB now projects 2026 growth at about 1% after a downgrade, while it maintains a 2025 GDP outlook of 1% to 1.5%.
  • The bank warns that sharply higher U.S. tariffs pose the biggest drag, particularly for machinery and watchmaking, with AFP reporting Washington set duties at 39%.
  • Officials say they remain ready to act in foreign‑exchange markets and note unemployment has been rising and is expected to increase further, as widely anticipated in an AWP survey of economists.