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Swinney Wins SNP Conference Backing to Tie IndyRef Bid to 2026 Majority

After fending off a grassroots bid for a de‑facto referendum, party leaders set a single trigger for pursuing a new vote as polling shows unionist parties divided.

Overview

  • Delegates approved a motion that the SNP must win an outright majority of MSPs at the 2026 Holyrood election before seeking a fresh independence referendum, citing the 2011 precedent.
  • An amendment backed by dozens of branches to treat a popular‑vote majority or a pro‑independence bloc as a mandate was debated but did not overturn the leadership's position.
  • John Swinney told members the party would "win big" next year and urged a simple message that only a vote for the SNP would secure Scotland's right to decide.
  • Opening the Aberdeen conference, Westminster leader Stephen Flynn attacked Labour under Keir Starmer, pitched independence as a "fresh start," and confirmed plans to run for Holyrood in 2026.
  • Analysts say the SNP remains favored to be the largest party due to a fragmented unionist vote with Reform UK rising as Labour stalls, while opponents attack the government's record on the NHS, drug deaths, schools and housing.