Overview
- The Swedish navy’s chief of operations said Russian submarine sightings have increased in recent years and are now routine for patrols.
- He assessed that a ceasefire or armistice in Ukraine would likely allow Moscow to reinforce the Baltic, prompting plans for naval growth.
- He said Russia is modernising its fleet and producing roughly one Kilo-class submarine each year in St Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
- He flagged hybrid risks from suspected drone activity, alleged undersea infrastructure sabotage, and a Russia-linked shadow fleet that could be used to launch drones.
- Sweden pointed to NATO efforts, including the Playbook Merlin 25 anti-submarine exercise and Operation Baltic Sentry, which it says coincide with no reported cable incidents since January.