Overview
- U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in an overnight operation announced by President Donald Trump, with Maduro and his wife flown to New York to face longstanding narcotics and weapons charges and a court appearance set in Manhattan.
- A newly created Polymarket account wagered roughly $30,000 on Maduro’s removal the day before the raid and realized about $410,000 to $436,760 in gains, while blockchain sleuths flagged additional new wallets for a combined haul near $630,000.
- One highlighted wallet, 0x31a5, reportedly staked about $34,000 and concentrated bets on Maduro’s ouster and U.S. action in Venezuela after being prefunded and dormant, a pattern analysts deemed suspicious.
- Implied odds on Polymarket for Maduro leaving office jumped from about 5.5% to nearly 99% in the hours before the public announcement, and related markets on U.S. custody spiked from low probabilities to near certainty.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres is preparing the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 to bar officials from wagering when they hold or could obtain nonpublic information, intensifying focus on platforms operating under recent CFTC approval as enforcement practices face questions.