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yesterday

Survey Shows AfD Tied With Union as Most Germans Foresee State Leadership in 2026

Recent national surveys place the far-right party level with the Union, pressuring Chancellor Merz’s no-cooperation barrier before critical regional ballots.

Fähnchen mit dem Logo der AfD liegen auf einem Tisch
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Overview

  • An Insa poll for Bild am Sonntag puts the AfD at 25% and the Union at 26%, while a Forsa survey for RTL/ntv records the AfD at 26%, illustrating tight competition in national voting intention.
  • The Insa survey finds 68% of respondents expect the AfD to secure at least one minister-president post after the 2026 Landtag elections, with 43% predicting a single state win and 25% forecasting multiple victories.
  • Public sentiment is split over CDU/CSU engagement with the AfD, as 47% support maintaining the party’s exclusion rule (‘Brandmauer’) while 40% favour ending the ban on cooperation.
  • Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s restrictive migration policies have yet to curb AfD momentum, with government approval languishing at just 32% in a recent ZDF poll and party leaders calling for a revised strategy.
  • The upcoming North Rhine-Westphalia municipal vote on September 14 serves as the first test of whether national polling strength will translate into power ahead of five state elections in 2026.