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4mo ago

Survey Sees South Korea Rebound to 1.8% in 2026, Around 2% in 2027

Stronger chip exports with firmer consumption are seen as the engines of a tentative rebound.

This photo shows vehicles for exports lined up at the Pyeongtaek Port in Gyeonggi Province on Aug. 26, 2025. (Yonhap)
Image
Containers are stacked at a port in the South Korean city of Pyeongtaek on Aug. 18, 2025. (Yonhap)
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (L) and U.S. President Donald Trump smile during their talks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Aug. 25, 2025. (Yonhap)

Overview

  • An average of 41 local and global forecasters in a Bloomberg tally projects 1.8% GDP growth for South Korea in 2026, with 19 forecasting about 2.0% for 2027.
  • The outlook tops the Bank of Korea’s 1.6% view for 2026 and follows its 0.9% growth projection for this year, with 35 institutions meeting or exceeding the central bank’s 2026 estimate.
  • Analysts attribute the improved projections to rising semiconductor shipments and a recovery in domestic demand.
  • The Bank of Korea estimates U.S. trade policy uncertainty could trim growth by 0.13 percentage point in 2025 and 0.16 point in 2026 after a deal set a 15% U.S. tariff in exchange for a $350 billion investment pledge.
  • Near‑term guidance from the central bank points to quarter‑on‑quarter growth of 0.6% in Q2, 1.1% in Q3, then 0.2% in Q4, and it expects a current account surplus of $110 billion this year.