Overview
- A Deutsches Zentrum für Integrations‑ und Migrationsforschung comparison of winter surveys reported on Monday shows people with a migration background moved further from seeing major parties as 'wählbar' compared with a year earlier.
- The decline was strongest for respondents with roots in Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa where SPD fell from 71% to 60% thinkable, CDU/CSU from 67% to 50%, Linke from 59% to 45% and FDP from 56% to 32%, while the Greens rose slightly and AfD fell in that group.
- A different pattern emerged for people with roots in the former Soviet Union where CDU/CSU remained relatively high at 62% and AfD was notably more thinkable at 45%, though that AfD figure also edged down from the prior wave.
- DeZIM researchers and articles stress major caveats: the surveys asked respondents whether they would ever vote for a party rather than immediate vote intention and some migrant subgroups were small (for example about 185 in the Turkey/MENA group and roughly 80 in the ex‑Soviet group), so percentage swings can be sensitive to sampling variation.
- Community groups cited lack of representation, rising anti‑Muslim racism and safety concerns as possible drivers and analysts warn the shifts could erode traditional party support, keep the SPD with the largest migrant voter potential for now, and prompt targeted follow‑up studies and political outreach.