Overview
- At oral arguments, justices across the spectrum pressed Solicitor General John Sauer on major-questions and non-delegation concerns, noting the emergency statute does not mention tariffs.
- Multiple lower courts have ruled against the administration’s IEEPA theory, the tariffs remain in force during deliberations, and a decision is expected by late June.
- Analysts say a ruling against the program could cut the effective tariff rate and force refunds of tens of billions of dollars in import fees with interest.
- Trump has warned refund liabilities could exceed $3 trillion and has floated $2,000 rebate checks to many Americans, though it is not clear he can implement such payments.
- Economists estimate the tariffs lifted consumer prices and reduced growth, with Yale and Moody’s pegging the GDP hit at roughly 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points alongside job losses and higher borrowing costs.