Overview
- Oral arguments are scheduled for Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET, focusing on whether IEEPA’s authority to “regulate … importation” includes imposing tariffs and how the major-questions doctrine applies.
- Lower courts found the IEEPA-based duties unlawful but kept them in effect pending Supreme Court review, leaving billions in collections on the line.
- President Trump says he will not attend; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to observe in person and frames the dispute as an economic and national security emergency.
- Traders largely expect the Court to strike down the IEEPA approach, with prediction markets pricing roughly a one-in-three chance the administration prevails, as investors position for potential refund claims.
- The administration signals fallback options under Sections 338, 232, and 301 if IEEPA is curtailed, while businesses report higher costs and project delays, including steep levies on steel, aluminum, and lumber.