Overview
- During arguments, justices from across the Court pressed major-questions and non-delegation concerns and noted that IEEPA does not mention tariffs, echoing lower-court rulings that rejected the administration’s theory.
- Tariffs remain in force with no ruling date set, as betting markets cut the administration’s chances to roughly 26 percent after the hearing.
- Treasury has warned that repayment exposure could reach $750 billion to $1 trillion if refunds are ordered, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett highlighted the practical difficulties of unwinding the duties.
- Wall Street investors are buying potential refund claims at about 10 to 25 cents on the dollar, reflecting uncertainty over whether the Court would require retroactive repayment and how any process would work.
- Analysts tie the levies to higher consumer costs and slower growth, citing estimates of roughly $1,800 more per household in 2025, while Senate votes to roll back parts of the program stalled as House leaders blocked floor action.