Overview
- After two days of arguments, justices from both blocs pressed Solicitor General John Sauer on the claim that IEEPA’s authority to “regulate importation” permits broad, reciprocal tariffs.
- Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett raised separation‑of‑powers concerns and the major‑questions doctrine, while challengers argued tariffs are taxes reserved to Congress.
- The duties remain active during the appeal, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports about $89–90 billion collected, raising potential refund and Treasury implications if the government loses.
- Market gauges reflected heightened uncertainty after the hearing, with prediction markets lowering the odds the tariffs survive and analysts warning that any refund obligations could strain federal finances.
- Even if the IEEPA path is struck down, experts say the administration could pivot to other trade statutes such as Sections 301, 232 or 338, as the Court moves toward an accelerated decision by year‑end or early 2026.