Overview
- After the Nov. 5 arguments, justices across the ideological spectrum questioned whether IEEPA’s mandate to “regulate importation” authorizes revenue‑raising tariffs, raising separation‑of‑powers and major‑questions concerns.
- Lower courts have already ruled the IEEPA tariffs unlawful, and the duties remain in effect as the Supreme Court considers an expedited ruling expected in December or January.
- Prediction markets slashed the odds of an administration win, with Kalshi and PolyMarket pricing falling to roughly the low‑20% range following the hearing.
- Analysts estimate $115 billion to $145 billion in collected duties could be challenged if the tariffs are struck down, and any refunds would be complex, non‑automatic, and likely delayed.
- Experts point to Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338 as alternative authorities to reimpose or approximate the tariffs, even as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly predicted the president will prevail.