Overview
- During Nov. 5 arguments, a majority of justices questioned whether the 1977 emergency‑powers law permits broad, revenue‑raising tariffs, raising separation‑of‑powers concerns.
- Several conservatives, including Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett, explored textual hooks such as the statute’s “licenses or otherwise” language and a Ford‑era fee precedent that could offer a narrower path to uphold the policy.
- The statute does not mention tariffs and no president had previously claimed tariff power under IEEPA, a gap that featured prominently in the justices’ questioning.
- Analysts estimate $115–$145 billion has been collected; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that refunding about half would burden the Treasury, and experts say repayments would likely take months or years through administrative or court processes.
- A decision is expected in December or January, and even if the IEEPA route fails, experts say the administration could pivot to other authorities such as Sections 301, 232, 122 or 338 to reimpose similar measures.