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Supreme Court Questions Trump’s Emergency Tariff Powers in IEEPA Showdown

Markets now price a likely loss for the IEEPA tariffs, with refunds looming alongside a possible pivot to other trade laws.

Overview

  • A majority of justices voiced skepticism that the 1977 IEEPA allows the president to impose broad revenue‑raising tariffs, raising separation‑of‑powers and major‑questions concerns.
  • Solicitor General D. John Sauer defended the levies as regulatory measures with incidental revenue, as challengers argued tariffs function as taxes reserved to Congress.
  • Some conservatives probed textual hooks such as the statute’s “licenses or otherwise” language and a 1976 precedent on import fees that could offer narrower support for the administration.
  • Lower courts have already rejected the IEEPA theory, the tariffs remain in effect, and estimates suggest roughly $115–$145 billion collected could face complex, delayed refund claims.
  • Prediction markets cut the odds of an administration win after argument, analysts see a decision by December or January, and many expect a shift to Section 122, Section 301, Section 232 or Section 338 if IEEPA fails.