Overview
- Friday is the first scheduled opinion day that could include a decision on President Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs after the Court added a non-argument date.
- During November arguments, justices across the ideological spectrum expressed skepticism, and prediction markets put the chance of the government prevailing near 23–31%.
- Potential refund exposure is roughly $133.5 billion to about $150 billion based on CBP collections, with a new shift to electronic refund distribution starting Feb. 6 to speed payments.
- Importers and retailers, including Costco and other major brands, have filed preemptive suits to preserve refund rights as trade lawyers warn the process could be complex and lengthy.
- Analysts say a ruling striking down the tariffs could lift some equities and affect Treasury yields, while the administration may pivot to narrower legal authorities to reimpose duties.