Overview
- The court issued no decision on January 9 in the challenge to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and set no new date for a ruling.
- Tariff collections totaled about $133.5 billion through December 14 and are estimated to be approaching $150 billion, creating large potential refunds if the measures are struck down.
- Customs officials are shifting refund distribution to an all‑electronic process through the ACE portal, a move watched by importers preparing claims and lawsuits.
- Lower courts have found IEEPA does not authorize broad tariffs, and justices signaled skepticism in November arguments, while prediction markets put full validation odds near 25–28%.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett say other statutes could sustain much of the tariff revenue, though a loss would reduce presidential flexibility and trigger complex refund litigation by companies such as Costco, Alcoa and Goodyear.