Overview
- After nearly three hours of arguments, several justices questioned using the 1977 IEEPA to levy broad, revenue-raising tariffs, with Chief Justice John Roberts flagging major-questions and separation-of-powers concerns.
- Conservative Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett probed textual routes that might sustain the policy, focusing on IEEPA’s "licenses or otherwise" language and a 1976 precedent upholding import fees.
- The tariffs remain in force as collections mount, with estimates ranging from roughly $115 billion to as high as $195 billion, and any invalidation could set off a slow, contested refund process.
- Prediction markets marked down the chances of the tariffs being upheld to about 21%, and analysts see a decision likely between December 2025 and January 2026.
- Trade experts say a loss on IEEPA would not end aggressive tariff policy because the administration could pivot to other authorities, including Sections 301, 232, 122 and 338.