Overview
- During Nov. 5 arguments, justices across the bench pressed whether IEEPA’s “regulate importation” language permits tariffs or intrudes on Congress’s taxing power, invoking the major‑questions doctrine.
- Lower courts have already rejected the IEEPA theory but stayed relief, so the broad “reciprocal” duties remain in effect while the Court drafts a decision expected in December or January.
- Analysts estimate $115–$145 billion has been collected under the IEEPA tariffs, with any invalidation likely to trigger slow, contested refund claims rather than automatic repayments.
- Betting markets slashed the probability of a government win after the hearing, with Kalshi and PolyMarket pricing roughly 24% odds of upholding the tariffs.
- Even with a loss on IEEPA, officials and experts point to fallback authorities such as Sections 122, 301, 232 and 338 that could sustain similar trade measures.