Overview
- In early September 2026 fire agencies in New South Wales and Victoria began earlier preparedness and stepped-up hazard-reduction work because meteorological forecasts show a very strong El Niño.
- Researchers define flash droughts as short, rapid drying events that remove moisture from soil and vegetation in days and thereby shrink the safe window for controlled burns.
- A recent UNSW study found fires burning where flash droughts overlapped with standard droughts were 65% larger, spread 35% faster, and burned 19% longer than fires in normal conditions.
- Officials warn that record ocean and atmospheric heat projected by the World Meteorological Organization for 2027 raises the baseline for extreme fire weather and increases the probability of an intense season.
- Emergency leaders point to the 2019–20 Black Summer and this year’s severe European heatwave fires as evidence that rapid drying combined with higher temperatures could meaningfully worsen impacts for communities and firefighters.