Overview
- Since June the equatorial Pacific has warmed rapidly and federal forecasters expect the El Niño to strengthen further and likely peak in November–December with effects persisting into early 2027.
- Daily sea-surface temperature measurements in the Niño region reached about +3.08°C above the 1991–2020 average, an exceptionally large ocean-heat anomaly driving stronger atmospheric shifts.
- Scientists and agencies link the event to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, an enhanced Pacific hurricane season, and emerging drought signals in Central America and parts of southern Africa.
- Analyses warn of large human impacts: a University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab report projects hundreds of thousands of additional heat-related deaths by February and U.N. agencies expect rising food insecurity risks for tens of millions.
- Forecasts carry important uncertainties because different indices measure El Niño strength and climate change may be amplifying the event, so agencies such as NOAA and national services are issuing high-probability warnings while urging regional preparedness.