Overview
- Scientists report the El Niño is rapidly strengthening, with a daily sea-surface temperature anomaly of +3.08°C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on Sept. 21 that exceeds any previously recorded single-day spike.
- Operational comparisons use a three-month rolling index and, by that NOAA measure, the event has not yet topped the 1997–98 El Niño, but forecasters say coming months could push the multi-month index past that benchmark.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre and the World Meteorological Organization both project a high probability the event will persist through winter 2026–27 and warn it could become the strongest recorded.
- India has already seen a 13% shortfall in the 2026 southwest monsoon with 38% of districts rated deficient, and experts are urging water conservation and agricultural contingency plans for a likely warmer, drier winter in parts of the country.
- El Niño works by shifting trade winds and moving warm surface water eastward, which redirects rainfall so some regions face heavy floods while others suffer drought; when this pattern coincides with long‑term warming it raises compound risks to food, water and air quality.