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1h ago

Sunspot AR4366 Unleashes X8 Flare as CME Forecast Points to Minor Storm on Feb. 5

Forecasters model a glancing CME arrival on Feb. 5 that may trigger a minor geomagnetic storm.

A spacecraft image of a bright orange flare erupting from the sun
Image
X8.1 solar flare on February 1, 2026. Credit: NASA/SDO AIA 304, The Watchers
X1.0 solar flare on February 1, 2026. Credit: NASA/SDO AIA 304, The Watchers

Overview

  • Active Region 4366 rapidly expanded into a complex beta-gamma-delta sunspot and fired multiple X-class flares, including an X8.1 event at 23:57 UTC on Feb. 1.
  • NOAA and other monitors reported strong R3 shortwave radio blackouts across the South Pacific, disrupting HF communications in eastern Australia and New Zealand.
  • Modeling indicates the CME linked to the X8-class eruption will mostly pass north and east of Earth, with a possible glancing impact that could produce G1 (Minor) conditions and limited auroras on Feb. 5.
  • Solar-wind data at L1 remain quiet for now, with elevated electron fluxes and proton levels near background, though brief S1 enhancements are possible.
  • SWPC expects continued moderate to high activity from AR4366, with high odds of additional M-class flares and a chance of further X-class events in the next few days.