Overview

• Gold Coast must beat Essendon to secure a maiden finals spot, with a loss leaving the Western Bulldogs in eighth.
• The size of any Suns win will set their elimination-final opponent, with a smaller margin pointing to GWS in Sydney and a larger one potentially sending them to Fremantle in Perth.
• AFL guidance puts the tipping point at roughly five goals, while other analysis suggests the high 20s to low 30s depending on overall scoring.
• Damien Hardwick recalls Daniel Rioli and Bailey Humphrey; Essendon regain Sam Durham and Jayden Laverde but lose Jade Gresham and carry a 12-game losing streak.
• After letting chances slip against GWS and Port Adelaide, this is the Suns’ third shot, with some pundits even speculating about ‘massaging’ a margin to manage travel.