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2d ago

Study Warns of 15% Chance of Major Cascadia Quake and Mega-Tsunami Risk

Simulations showing abrupt coastal subsidence along the Pacific Northwest coast have prompted calls to overhaul evacuation protocols.

AI Tsunami
Mega-tsunami warning: These 3 US states could face direct impact in next 50 years (Unsplash - representational image)
Mega Tsunami warning in US: Coastal states like Washington, Oregon, and northern California can potentially be devastated, while Alaska and Hawaii could also be in danger.

Overview

  • A Virginia Tech study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences estimates a 15% probability of a magnitude-8.0 or greater Cascadia earthquake within the next 50 years.
  • Modeling scenarios indicate sudden coastal land subsidence of up to 6.5 feet during a major quake, dramatically expanding floodplains along northern Oregon, southern Washington and northern California.
  • Extreme simulations project tsunami waves soaring to hundreds and in some cases nearly 1,000 feet, reaching shorelines within minutes and imperiling urban and rural communities.
  • Researchers warn that current hazard maps understate population and infrastructure exposure because they omit combined effects of quake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise.
  • Experts and officials are urging stronger building codes, integrated resilience planning and upgraded early-warning systems to address gaps in evacuation plans and hazard assessments.