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Study Warns of 15% Chance of Cascadia Mega-Quake and Tsunami Within 50 Years

Virginia Tech researchers project a magnitude 8.0 earthquake could trigger a 1,000-foot tsunami and significant land subsidence along the U.S. West Coast.

According to geologists, mega-tsunamis are most often triggered by landslides, earthquakes, or other seismic events.

Overview

  • Virginia Tech geoscientists estimate a 15% probability of a magnitude 8.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone within the next 50 years.
  • Such a quake could generate a 1,000-foot mega-tsunami, posing severe risks to coastal cities like Seattle and Portland.
  • The earthquake could cause up to 6.5 feet of land subsidence, expanding coastal flood zones and complicating recovery efforts.
  • The most severe impacts are expected in southern Washington, northern Oregon, and northern California, with Alaska and Hawaii also vulnerable.
  • The last major quake in the Cascadia subduction zone occurred in 1700, highlighting the urgency for updated hazard models and preparedness plans.