Overview
- Modeling by Barmer’s research institute and the Bertelsmann Stiftung projects a fall in full‑time‑equivalent GP capacity from 51,407 to 45,492 by 2040, with the supply–demand ratio deteriorating from 101% to 87%.
- Small towns and rural areas face the greatest risk as shortages spread from today’s hotspots in the East to Western states including Lower Saxony, Rhineland‑Palatinate, Saarland, Baden‑Württemberg and North Rhine‑Westphalia.
- The outlook is driven by a wave of retirements and planned cuts to weekly hours, with about a quarter of GPs intending to leave practice within five years and roughly 41% aged 60 or older.
- More than 5,000 GP seats are already unfilled nationwide, yet the authors say targeted steering of future entrants—about 10% each year, roughly 160 doctors, or even a 3% shift—could largely prevent widespread underprovision.
- The study questions the feasibility of a nationwide GP‑gatekeeping reform without structural changes and urges task‑shifting, multiprofessional health centers and digital tools to boost effective capacity.